Market Update

Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter

San Mateo County

December 2001

Section IIa - December 2001 - Houses

AVAILABLE	Jul-01	Aug-01		Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01		Nov-00	Nov-99
DOI^2,3	89.3	89.3		129.6	87.4	70.5		n/a	n/a
Inventory²	1378	1329		1422	1316	1046	R	n/a	n/a
Sale/day^2,3	15.4	14.9	C	11	<`> 15.1	14.8	I	n/a	n/a
DOM med²	51	51	Y	57	59	68	C	n/a	n/a
DOM ave²	66	71	N	73	80	90	H	n/a	n/a
			T				A
SALES⁴	Jul-01	Aug-01	H	Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01	R	Nov-00	Nov-99
SP 10%¹	$410,000	$399,000	I	$418,400	$389,300	tbd	D	$389,400	$325,000
SP 50%med¹	$590,000	$559,500	A	$585,000	$560,000	tbd	C	$649,000	$500,000
SP 90%¹	$1,257,200	$1,227,200	H	$1,144,000	$1,198,500	tbd	A	$1,650,000	$1,204,000
LP med²	$599,000	$579,725	A	$599,000	$579,725	$589,988	L	$609,450	$495,000
SP/LP ave¹	97.4%	97.5%	I	96.9%	96.1%	tbd	H	104.3%	101.6%
%SP>LP¹	18.8%	20.3%	N	14.4%	13.4%	tbd	O	55.6%	46.0%
%SP<LP¹	68.9%	66.8%	E	72.3%	74.8%	tbd	U	30.9%	39.2%
DOM med²	43	40	S	42	44	53	N	18	20
DOM ave²	55	54	@	58	63	70	@	33	41
# Sales²	513	516	C	314	498	449	C	406	547
% TFT¹	5.5%	8.5%	R	6.1%	2.8%	tbd	R	5.2%	3.8%
			E				E
CLOSINGS	Jul-01	Aug-01	E	Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01	E	Nov-00	Nov-99
SP 10%²	$405,000	$410,200	K	$398,900	$400,200	$400,000	K	$385,000	$315,000
SP50% med²	$595,000	$575,000	S	$571,000	$586,500	$569,500	S	$595,000	$476,400
SP 90%²	$1,325,000	$1,374,500	I	$1,155,000	$1,247,400	$1,195,500	I	$1,412,500	$1,097,700
LP med²	$599,000	$596,500	D	$588,944	$599,000	$599,000	D	$569,000	$459,977
SP/LP ave²	97.6%	97.5%	E	97.3%	96.9%	96.3%	E	103.4%	101.8%
%SP>LP²	19.8%	20.5%	R	17.9%	15.5%	12.4%	R	53.0%	43.8%
%SP<LP²	64.7%	68.2%	E	69.2%	72.0%	73.2%	E	33.4%	38.6%
DOM med²	33	41	A	39	39	43	A	15	18
DOM ave²	43	54	L	56	55	62	L	32	36
#Closings²	445	522	T	390	343	380	T	435	492
Updated#¹	457	537	Y	393	$349	tbd	Y	451	502
			.				.
OFFMARKET	Jul-01	Aug-01	C	Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01	C	Nov-00	Nov-99
DOM med²	103	115	O	106	109	124	O
DOM ave²	121	125	M	114	125	138	M
#Off mark²	130	152		185	240	217

1) Data related to sold price is re-compiled early during the current month to incorporate recent closings without delaying the BAREMN. 2) Data is compiled on the 5th day of following month to agree with MLS policy. 3) DOI & Sales per day calculations use recent sales activity. 4) The data is still subject to change as these sales continue to close and the sold prices are reported.

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Errors: If you notice or even suspect any discrepancies and/or errors please email the details to error@CreeksideRealty.com .

Warning: The research done to gather the data in the BAREMN involves examining about 90,000 listings. With that much data, inaccuracies will occur. Additionally, numerous assumptions are made on how to handle this volume of data. Care is taken in gathering and processing the data and the information within this report is deemed reliable. BUT IT IS NOT GUARANTEED. The real estate market is cyclical and will continue to have its ups and downs. Past performance cannot determine future performance. The purpose of the BAREMN is to give you current and consistent market conditions by reporting leading market indicators in addition to traditional real estate data.

Section IIb - December 2001 - Condos

AVAILABLE	Jul-01	Aug-01		Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01		Nov-00	Nov-99
DOI^2,3	98.5	100.4		143.5	112.4	89.8		n/a	n/a
Inventory²	473	462		492	456	408	R	n/a	n/a
Sale/day^2,3	4.8	4.6	C	3.43	4.06	4.54	I	n/a	n/a
DOM med²	55	58	Y	53	58	64	C	n/a	n/a
DOM ave²	65	70	N	69	75	75	H	n/a	n/a
			T				A
SALES⁴	Jul-01	Aug-01	H	Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01	R	Nov-00	Nov-99
SP 10%¹	$235,400	$198,200	I	$210,000	$218,600	tbd	D	$217,475	$159,900
SP 50%med¹	$380,000	$366,750	A	$345,000	$399,000	tbd	C	$380,000	$296,944
SP 90%¹	$553,600	$539,880	H	$547,200	$576,400	tbd	A	$655,000	$491,900
LP med²	$384,950	$379,450	A	$359,000	$408,000	$370,000	L	$369,000	$289,000
SP/LP ave¹	97.7%	97.5%	I	96.8%	97.4%	tbd	H	102.5%	101.3%
%SP>LP¹	13.9%	12.8%	N	10.2%	7.5%	tbd	O	56.3%	54.7%
%SP<LP¹	71.5%	72.3%	E	81.8%	75.3%	tbd	U	23.8%	22.9%
DOM med²	55	53	S	69	55	62	N	14	11
DOM ave²	61	63	@	78	70	82	@	28	29
# Sales²	145	152	C	97	133	133	C	129	172
% TFT¹	5.5%	6.6%	R	5.2%	6.8%	tbd	R	2.3%	1.2%
			E				E
CLOSINGS	Jul-01	Aug-01	E	Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01	E	Nov-00	Nov-99
SP 10%²	$226,850	$232,600	K	$214,200	$210,000	$218,600	K	$220,000	$163,700
SP50% med²	$370,000	$382,350	S	$369,000	$377,500	$400,000	S	$380,000	$322,500
SP 90%²	$515,000	$538,940	I	$538,100	$594,000	$565,600	I	$628,500	$498,040
LP med²	$370,000	$389,389	D	$379,900	$380,000	$409,000	D	$377,000	$310,000
SP/LP ave²	98.0%	97.6%	E	97.3%	96.9%	97.5%	E	103.2%	100.7%
%SP>LP²	17.1%	17.5%	R	9.7%	7.4%	10.6%	R	64.2%	41.7%
%SP<LP²	70.5%	66.9%	E	80.5%	75.8%	80.9%	E	16.4%	39.3%
DOM med²	41	45	A	62	65	48	A	13	14
DOM ave²	48	54	L	70	72	66	L	22	31
#Closings²	129	154	T	113	95	94	T	129	158
Updated#¹	130	160	Y	115	100	tbd	Y	134	163
			.				.
OFFMARKET	Jul-01	Aug-01	C	Sep-01	Oct-01	Nov-01	C	Nov-00	Nov-99
DOM med²	99	100	O	95	96	144	O
DOM ave²	103	111	M	112	115	146	M
#Off mark²	61	54		64	90	81

Subscribe: If you, or someone you know, would like to receive the BAREMN, please send an email to Subscription@CreeksideRealty.com. You will receive an email as each issue becomes available.

Back editions: are available at: http://www.creeksiderealty.com/market_update/market_index.htm .

Remove: If you don’t want future editions use the reply button, write “remove” in either the subject line or in the body of the email.

Errors: If you notice or even suspect any discrepancies and/or errors please email the details to error@CreeksideRealty.com .

Section IIc - December 2001

Available - data in this category is based on properties currently available for sale, status 1.

Days of Inventory (DOI) started at 30.4 on January 1^st and increased to 88 on April 10^th, indicating a worsening market. DOI has been relatively level until WTC. DOI then spiked to 130 on October 6^th. DOI has been falling ever since and on November 5th overall DOI was 87. Homes under $500K DOI was 66; for homes in the $500K to $1M range DOI was 89; and for homes over $1M DOI was 131. Home sales over $5+ Million also recovered; 28 homes available and 7 sales yields a DOI of only 140.

SMC inventory grew rapidly from 279 on January 1^st to 1381 on May 8^th. Inventory has since stabilized and has been fluctuating between 1316 and 1437. Inventory was at 1316 on November 5^th and decreasing. About half the level of 2800 in mid-1995.

The number of sales per day has been increasing recently. Currently SMC is selling 15.1 homes per day.

Days on the market (DOM) for available listings continues to grow but at a slower rate. DOM reached 59/80 days (median/average).

DOI (87) is basically equal to the average DOM (80). If off market properties were adjusted for, DOI might be less than DOM.

Sales - data in this category is based on properties with an initiated sale (offer accepted) during the month.

The median LIST price is $579,725 which is $20,000 lower compared to last year. The difference is really greater because a year ago there was more over-bidding and this comparison is based on LIST price.

Notice that the DOM for sales that had been climbing at about a seven-day increase each month for five months; March 15/27, April 21/33, May 28/41, June 37/47, July 43/55 appeared to level off in August at 40/54, but after WTC resumed its climb, September reached 42/58 and October 44/63.

The number of sales had been flat with 512 in June, 513 in July and 516 in August plummeted to 314 in September but recovered in October to 498. Sales per day, which is a more accurate reflection of the market as it eliminates the weekly cycles, decreased from 16.4 to 14.9 during the same period. In September this dropped to 11.0 sales/day. Sales/day rebounded to 15.1 for October.

Percent of transactions fallen through ( %TFT) increased significantly from 1999 and 2000 to 2001.

Closings - data in this category is based on properties that closed escrow during the month.

After remaining unchanged for four months August’s median sold price dropped $20,000, bring it to the lowest level since February 2000. September maintained this level at $571,000. October saw an increase to $586,5000.This is still a $100,000 drop from peak price of $683,750 that occurred in February 2001 and $45,000 below October 2000. Typically, property values will fall more significantly than median price.

The trend of fewer homes selling over the asking price and more homes selling below the asking price continues. A year ago Sellers were getting 103.9% of their asking price and now they are realizing 96.9%. It is noteworthy that even in this buyer’s market a significant number (one sixth) of the properties are still selling over the asking price.

The DOM for closings in May was 21/32, June was 26/37, July was 33/43, August increased to 41/54. September and October were similar at 39/55. These figures show the marketing time was increasing earlier in the year and leveled off recently. The trend will be up again next month as a result of the temporarily slow down caused by WTC.

October’s closings at only 343 is only 63% of 1999; and 64% of 2000 levels. Updated# is an adjusted number of reported closings

Request your own copy by sending an email to Subscription@CreeksideRealty.com The data is gathered, compiled and published by Creekside Realty. Back editions are available at: http://www.creeksiderealty.com/market_update_new/market_index.htm.

Warning - The real estate market is cyclical and there will continue to be additional ups and downs. Past performance cannot determine future performance. The purpose of the BAREMN is to give you current market conditions and not forecasting. Information is deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed.

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