Market Update

Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter

Monterey County

June 2001

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4a) Monterey County

Current Market Data - Days of inventory (DOI) has been increasing since Feb.; 75.8 DOI in Feb., 108.4 in March, 132.6 DOI in April and 163.3 in May. DOI is 73 for homes under $500K; 204 for the $500K to $1.M range and 264 for homes over $1M. Although all three price segments showed improvement, MTY’s overall number worsened because of the distribution between the different price ranges. This is an example of the need to study the market in depth and not to rely on any one figure. Home sales in the $5+ Million price range are dead. With 16 homes on the market and only 2 homes in escrow this yields approximately 1 year supply of homes in the high-end.

Although inventory has been growing, it is a far cry from the peak of approximately 1600 in mid-1995. Like SZC and SMC MT current inventory levels are 50% of their record peak levels in mid-1995. Yet at the same time SCC is setting new record high inventory levels.

The number of sales per day continues is actually declining as we move from the holiday season to the peak selling time. 7.3 sales/day in Feb., 6.5 sales/day in March, 6.2 sales/day n April, and 5.1 sales/day currently in May. Clearly, not a good sign for MTY.

Days on the market (DOM) for listings currently available (status 1) is 57/84, which is greater than the DOM for homes that are in escrow at 39/56, which is greater than closed transactions 28/62. For all DOM data the first figure is the median and the second number the average (mean). Although not widely used, the median DOM is more representative of trends just like median price is more representative compared with average (mean) price. The median DOM represents the time to market 50% of the properties. The lengthening trend should continue because the average DOM should equal DOI with DOI being a leading indicator and DOM a lagging indicator. The DOM figures are based on continuous days on the market and not the list date.

Sales Data - The median list price has leveled. But if DOI continues to increase because of increased inventory or a reduction in sales something must give. It will likely be decreases in prices in the near term.

The median DOM has been roughly flat since the beginning of the year even as the average DOOM increase. However, May did show an increase in median DOM to 39. This combined with the increase n DOM for current inventory will likely increase marketing times for properties in MTY.

The number of sales during the month of May is 200 basically flat since the beginning of the year based on monthly figures and has actually decreased based on daily figures. This decrease is occurring at time when traditionally sales increase as MTY moves away from the annual holidays.

Closed Data - The median sales price reached $329K in July 1999 and has swung between $275K and $380K since then. This is an indication that there are not enough sales to prevent large monthly bounces because of the wide price range of properties in MTY. So looking at other data such as DOI, inventory, and # sales can help you determine which way the market is going.

Still about 15% of the properties have been selling over the asking price. This is based on list price at time sale is made and does not reflect early price reductions the seller has made. Although it would be nice to calculate this ratio based on the sellers’ original list price, the MLS (REIL) allows listing agents to wipe out the original list price anytime they pay a $25 re-list fee.

Condo/townhouse market - There are so few sales of condos that a statistical comparison would be of questionable value. Just look at the monthly fluctuations.

4b) monterey County

This information is gathered and compiled by RichardCalhoun@CreeksideRealty.com

WARNING: The Bay Area real estate market is cyclic. The Bay Area will like continue to see additional up and down cycles. Only a small percentage of the total properties sell in a given month. Consequently, small changes in the economic conditions can make a significant change in the supply and demand balance for the real estate market. Paqt performance cannot determine future performance.

**HOUSES**

CURRENTMARKET	Jan-01	Feb-01	Mar-01	Apr-01	May-01	May-00	May-99
Days of Inven	92.2 days	75.8 days	108.4 day	132.6 day	163.3 day
current inven	540 homes	9 552 homes	709 homes	826 homes	952 homes
# sales/day	5.9 sales	7.3 sales	6.5 sales	6.2 sales	5.9 sales
DOM w/o sale me				46/74 day	57/84 day
month pendings¹
SALE price med	$340,000⁵	R $329,500⁵	$350,000⁴	R $365,000⁴	n/a	$335,000	$295,000
LIST price med	$350,000	I $335,000	$340,000	I $369,475	$364,500	$349,000	$295,000
SP/LP average	97.80%⁵	C 97.8%⁵	98.20%⁴	C 97.3%⁴	n/a	98.30%	97.77%
%pending sp>lp	11.60%⁵	H 14.0%⁵	12.40%⁴	H 11.1%⁴	n/a	16.10%	12.90%
%pending sp<lp	58.40%⁵	A 59.9%⁵	56.20%⁴	A 66.7%⁴	n/a	53.40%	62.21%
Days on Market	30/58 day	R 24/47 day	28/47 day	R 29/63 day	39/56 day	18/45 day	27/91 day
number pending	197 homes	D 220 homes	211 homes	D 198 homes	200 homes	272 homes	237 home
monthly CLOSES²		C		C
SOLD price med	$352,000	A $356,500	$335,000	A $339,500	$352,500	$340,000	$273,450
LIST price med	$359,000	L $370,000	$335,000	L $344,900	$359,000	$340,000	$275,000
SP/LP average	97.90%	H 98.4%	97.70%	H 97.8%	97.20%	98.80%	97.36%
%closes sp>lp	19.60%	O 17.2%	11.00%	O 12.9%	11.70%	18.80%	96.50%
%closes sp<lp	47.70%	U 54.5%	60.20%	U 57.9%	64.90%	47.30%	64.47%
Days on Market	32/55 day	N 29/51 day	25/52 day	N 30/48 day	28/62 day	23/60 day	34/76 day
number closes	150 homes	@ 134 homes	186 homes	@ 178 homes	154 homes	253 homes	228 homes

**CONDOS/Townhouse**

CURRENTMARKET	Jan-01	Feb-01	Mar-01	Apr-01	May-01	May-00	May-99
Days of Inven	52.5 days	C 43.8 days	80.4 days	C 94.5 days	82.6 days
current inven	36 units	R 40 units	62 units	R 81 units	85 units
# sales/day	0.69 sale	E 0.91 sale	0.77 sale	E 0.86 sale	1.03 sale
DOM w/o sale me		E		E 38/58 day	43/65 day
month pendings¹		K		K
SALE price med	$272,250⁵	S $264,000⁵	$320,000⁴	S $271,950⁴	n/a	$210,500	$223,000
LIST price med	$285,000	I $279,500	$312,500	I $240,000	$264,750	$201,200	$184,900
SP/LP average	98.40%⁵	D 97.7%⁵	98.40%⁴	D 99.1%⁴	n/a	100.20%	99.45%
%pending sp>lp	8.30%⁵	E 20.0%⁵	5.60%⁴	E 18.7%⁴	n/a	28.10%	12.90%
%pending sp<lp	66.70%⁵	R 35.0%⁵	44.40%⁴	R 37.5%⁴	n/a	39.40%	54.84%
Days on Market	21/59 day	E 13/26 day	23/50 day	E 15/31 day	35/53 day	8/27 day	30/94 day
number pending	29 units	A 23 units	26 units	A 25 units	36 units	38 units	35 units
monthly CLOSES²		L		L
SOLD price med	$295,000	T $239,000	$348,400	T $272,500	$225,000	$240,500	$145,000
LIST price med	$305,000	Y $239,000	$336,500	Y $272,500	$227,500	$239,000	$149,500
SP/LP average	98.00%	. 98.6%	97.80%	. 98.4%	98.60%	99.30%	98.55%
%closes sp>lp	12.00%	C 4.8%	14.30%	C 12.5%	20.00%	27.30%	6.90%
%closes sp<lp	52.00%	O 61.9%	42.90%	O 43.8%	48.00%	54.50%	48.28%
Days on Market	33/59 day	M 11/47 day	15/41 day	M 28/43 day	19/28 day	8/18 day	28/93 day
number closes	25 units	21 units	28 units	16 units	25 units	22 units	29 units

1) Sales data related to sale price is re-complied early during current month to incorporate recent closings w/o delaying this report..

2) Closed data complied at 2:30 AM on the 5th day of following month to agree with MLS policy.

3) DOI & Sales per day calculations uses recent sales activity.

4) These figures are still subject to significant change as these sales close and the sale prices are reported

5) These figures are still subject to minor adjustments as these sales close and the sales prices are reported.

The information contained herein cannot be used without give RichardCalhoun@CreeksideRealty.com credit.

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