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Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter
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Multi-Units
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July 2001
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Please
note:
The monthly Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter is available via
e-mail. Just send an e-mail to Subscription@CreeksideRealty.com
and you will be added to the distribution list.
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6A)
Multi-units
This
is the first time multi-unit properties have been included. Only data
for San Mateo County (SMC) and Santa Clara County (SCC) is included.
I had hoped to include data from Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito
but there is not enough data individually. I also looked at combining
them but unfortunately each County was different enough I was concerned
about being able to draw accurate conclusions.
Both
markets appear to follow the Single Family Market (SFR) in their respective
County. However, the multi-unit market appears to be lagging behind
the SFR market by about a month.
Because
DOI is an instant market indicator and DOM is a lagging indicator, DOM
is always chasing the DOI. Consequently, expect DOM figures to increase
until DOM=DOI. This means it will take longer time to sell property,
in the near term. Now and anytime DOM is less than DOI people think
the market is better than it really is. The size of the difference measures
the degree of disparage.
The
median prices drop less than actual individual property values. The
reason is buyers willing to purchase in a buyer’s market spend what
they can qualify for. These buyers get a lot more house for the same
purchase price. This means the median prices are relatively more stable
compared with the individual property values which actually lose more
value. During the 1989 slow down median prices dropped about 10% yet
property values dropped 25 to 30%. Indications are this time will be
no different.
You
may also want to read the analysis for SMC or SCC SFR market place to
gain additional useful insights. The statistical data is presented in
the same format for your review.
The real estate market is cyclic. If multi-units
are near the bottom it is a great time to purchase; HOWEVER, if the market
continues to fall (which is what you would expect if it is truly following
the SFR market), waiting will be the correct strategy. Only time will
tell. The purpose of this newsletter is to let you know where the market
is not to forecast what the market will do.
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6b)
Multi-units
This
information is gathered and compiled by RichardCalhoun@CreeksideRealty.com
WARNING:
The Bay Area real estate market is cyclic. The Bay Area will like
continue to see additional up and down cycles. Only a small percentage
of the total properties sell in a given month. Consequently, small
changes in the economic conditions can make a significant change
in the supply and demand balance for the real estate market. Past
performance cannot determine future performance.
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**San Mateo County**
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CURRENTMARKET
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Feb-01
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Mar-01
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Apr-01
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May-01
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Jun-01
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Jun-00
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Jun-99
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Days of Inven
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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170
days
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n/a
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n/a
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current inven
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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78
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n/a
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n/a
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# sales/day
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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0.457
sales
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n/a
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n/a
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DOM w/o sale me
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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69/93
day
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n/a
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n/a
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month pendings1
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<-span>
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SALE price med
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$850,000
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$745,000
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$725,000
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$800,000
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n/a
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$649,000
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$537,000
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LIST price med
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$850,000
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$750,000
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$795,000
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$767,500
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$775,000
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$649,000
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$519,000
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SP/LP average
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100.17%
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99.69%
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97.92%
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96.25%
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n/a
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101.92%
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100.11%
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%pending sp>lp
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50.00%
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40.00%
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28.57%
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12.50%
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n/a
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43.37%
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30.00%
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%pending sp<lp
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27.78%
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50.00%
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57.14%
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75.00%
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n/a
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10.52%
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55.00%
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Days on Market
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18/28
day
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12/27
day
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19/25
day
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28/55
day
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38/50
day
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20/29
day
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26/44
day
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number pending
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19
units
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20
units
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19
units
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14
units
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13
units
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19
units
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20
units
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% TFT
monthly CLOSES2
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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0%
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n/a
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n/a
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SOLD price med
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$622,500
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$735,000
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$830,000
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$725,000
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$720,500
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$649,500
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$531,500
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LIST price med
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$600,000
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$699,000
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$849,000
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$725,000
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$697,500
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$643,500
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$554,975
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SP/LP average
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103.02%
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103.05%
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100.52%
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100.30%
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97.91%
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101.55%
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97.86%
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%closes sp>lp
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58.33%
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50.00%
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47.06%
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47.62%
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25.00%
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55.00%
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20.83%
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%closes sp<lp
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16.67%
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40.00%
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52.94%
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28.57%
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65.00%
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36.36%
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66.67%
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Days on Market
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20/36
day
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22/27
day
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17/37
day
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16/18
day
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20/26
day
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19/25
day
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25/48
day
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number closes
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12
units
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10
units
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17
units
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21
units
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20
units
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22
units
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24
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corrected count
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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**Santa Clara County**
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CURRENTMARKET
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Days of Inven
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85.19
day
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129.57
day
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139.22
day
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140.78
day
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135.00
day
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54.93
day
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39.22
day
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current inven
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129
units
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174
units
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179
units
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181
units
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162
units
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113
units
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101
units
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# sales/day
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2.05
sales
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2.18
sales
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2.10
sales
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1.93
sales
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1.95
sales
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2.65
sales
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2.58
sales
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DOM w/o sale me
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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66/79
day
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n/a
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n/a
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month pendings1
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SALE price med
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$655,000
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$752,000
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$655,500
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$625,000
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n/a
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$610,000
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$425,000
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LIST price med
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$667,500
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$757,500
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$662,500
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$650,000
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$696,000
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$615,000
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$450,000
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SP/LP average
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97.84%
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98.38%
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98.78%
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98.55%
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n/a
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99.22%
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98.65%
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%pending sp>lp
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25.00%
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22.22%
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17.39%
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9.52%
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n/a
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26.67%
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23.64%
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%pending sp<lp
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47.22%
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55.56%
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56.22%
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57.14%
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n/a
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46.67%
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52.73%
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Days on Market
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17/33
day
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21/41
day
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22/31
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30/41
day
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68/69
day
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19/30
day
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31/54
day
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number pending
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40
units
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42
units
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26
units
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38
units
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39
units
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60
units
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55
units
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% TFT
monthly CLOSES2
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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38
units
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n/a
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n/a
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SOLD price med
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$680,000
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$675,000
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$692,500
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$700,000
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$632,500
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$595,000
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$497,475
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LIST price med
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$679,950
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$695,000
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$707,500
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$699,000
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$644,975
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$599,000
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$809,475
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SP/LP average
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101.66%
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99.57%
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98.28%
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97.76%
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98.96%
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100.70%
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98.87%
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%closes sp>lp
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44.44%
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32.43%
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17.14%
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18.92%
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14.71%
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56.72%
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29.41%
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%closes sp<lp
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33.33%
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40.54%
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57.14%
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51.35%
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58.82%
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26.87%
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51.47%
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Days on Market
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28/41
day
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12/39
day
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17/39
day
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28/42
day
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23/38
day
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13/18
day
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27/49
day
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number closes
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27
units
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37
units
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35
units
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37
units
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34
units
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67
units
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68
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correct count
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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1)
Sales data related to sale price is re-complied early during
current month to incorporate recent closings w/o delaying this
report..
2)
Closed data complied at 2 AM on the 5th day of following
month to agree with MLS policy.
The
information contained herein cannot be used without give RichardCalhoun@CreeksideRealty.com
credit.
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