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Santa Clara County Houses as of February 5, 2002

Available

Sep-01

Oct-01

 

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

 

Jan-01

Jan-00

DOM med

67

69

 

75

82

65

r

n/a

n/a

DOM ave

87

93

c

104

110

102

i

 

 

Inventory

3817

3364

y

2683

1927

1622

c

1505

649

 

 

 

n

 

 

 

h

 

 

Sales

Sep-01

Oct-01

t

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

a

Jan-01

Jan-00

SP 10%

$368,100

$372,200

h

$375,000

$385,000

tbd

r

$400,000

$317,050

SP 50% med

$470,000

$499,000

i

$509,500

$499,894

tbd

d

$560,000

$464,500

SP 90%

$900,000

$998,190

a

$998,100

$969,000

tbd

c

$1,123,000

$950,000

LP med

$489,000

$509,000

h

$524,900

$514,950

$525,000

a

$549,950

$449,000

SP/LP ave

96.5%

96.2%

a

96.2%

96.7%

tbd

l

101.1%

104.2%

%SP>LP

12.3%

10.8%

i

8.5%

11.7%

tbd

h

49.4%

59.8%

%SP<LP

78.0%

80.5%

n

83.1%

78.5%

tbd

o

34.0%

21.7%

DOM med

62

69

e

63

68

57

u

14

10

DOM ave

77

83

s

81

87

82

n

33

40

# Sales

732

955

@

1059

962

1295

@

761

896

# TFT

672

893

c

1000

906

tbd

c

706

872

% TFT

8.2%

6.5%

r

5.6%

5.8%

tbd

r

7.2%

2.7%

 

 

 

e

 

 

 

e

 

 

Closings

Sep-01

Oct-01

e

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

e

Jan-01

Jan-00

SP 10%

$380,000

$373,000

k

$375,000

$370,000

$380,000

k

$395,000

$295,200

SP 50% med

$500,000

$481,000

s

$498,500

$499,000

$493,500

s

$577,500

$433,500

SP 90%

$910,000

$985,000

i

$1,000,000

$911,500

$953,500

i

$1,330,000

$1,006,800

LP med

$524,000

$499,500

d

$521,500

$519,000

$500,000

d

$565,000

$429,000

SP/LP ave

96.9%

96.6%

e

96.2%

96.4%

96.7%

e

101.3%

101.9%

%SP>LP

12.2%

13.0%

r

11.0%

9.5%

11.2%

r

53.6%

47.0%

%SP<LP

76.8%

76.4%

e

80.8%

81.9%

80.0%

e

28.2%

35.6%

DOM med

59

56

a

66

62

64

a

13

17

DOM ave

70

74

l

80

79

83

l

34

40

# Closings

797

741

t

757

888

944

t

599

719

Updated #

828

766

y

788

tbd

tbd

y

619

735

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

.

 

 

Off-Market

Sep-01

Oct-01

c

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

c

Jan-01

Jan-00

DOM med

120

121

o

134

151

169

o

n/a

n/a

DOM ave

125

129

m

150

170

179

m

n/a

n/a

# Off

613

783

 

634

632

456

 

n/a

n/a

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Santa Clara County Condos as of February 5, 2002

Available

Sep-01

Oct-01

 

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

 

Jan-01

Jan-00

DOM med

59

62

 

71

78

54

r

n/a

n/a

DOM ave

76

81

c

88

94

81

i

n/a

n/a

Inventory

1270

1194

y

992

744

563

c

418

172

 

 

 

n

 

 

 

h

 

 

Sales

Sep-01

Oct-01

t

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

a

Jan-01

Jan-00

SP 10%

$237,200

$225,270

h

$235,320

$247,940

Tbd

r

$260,000

$184,700

SP 50% med

$320,000

$315,000

i

$325,000

$340,000

Tbd

d

$361,000

$276,000

SP 90%

$484,500

$459,100

a

$448,955

$483,000

Tbd

c

$577,500

$486,500

LP med

$329,000

$324,950

h

$334,975

$349,950

$337,750

a

$349,000

$269,000

SP/LP ave

96.8%

96.9%

a

97.0%

96.8%

Tbd

l

102.4%

104.5%

%SP>LP

6.7%

7.9%

i

9.8%

6.8%

tbd

h

62.4%

63.9%

%SP<LP

81.9%

79.3%

n

77.1%

82.1%

tbd

o

19.9%

14.4%

DOM med

59

59

e

66

74

61

u

11

8

DOM ave

73

79

s

81

94

82

n

20

18

# Sales

222

265

@

316

331

504

@

337

289

# TFT

212

244

c

305

315

tbd

c

312

278

% TFT

4.5%

7.9%

r

3.5%

4.8%

tbd

r

7.4%

3.8%

 

 

 

e

 

 

 

e

 

 

Closings

Sep-01

Oct-01

e

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

e

Jan-01

Jan-00

SP 10%

$236,900

$232,030

k

$235,000

$237,400

$239,700

k

$246,700

$174,190

SP 50% med

$330,000

$320,000

s

$320,000

$325,000

$335,000

s

$339,500

$276,000

SP 90%

$505,000

$491,500

i

$465,200

$475,200

$451,000

i

$555,580

$444,795

LP med

$339,950

$325,000

d

$329,500

$335,950

$349,000

d

$330,000

$269,000

SP/LP ave

97.0%

97.1%

e

96.9%

97.1%

96.7%

e

102.7%

102.6%

%SP>LP

9.3%

8.0%

r

7.1%

10.8%

7.3%

r

66.2%

54.2%

%SP<LP

79.4%

79.0%

e

81.2%

78.7%

79.9%

e

17.3%

18.7%

DOM med

57

58

a

53

68

68

a

9

9

DOM ave

68

73

l

72

83

87

l

16

22

# Closings

247

238

t

197

277

329

t

225

253

Updated #

256

240

y

211

tbd

tbd

y

239

262

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

.

 

 

Off-Market

Sep-01

Oct-01

c

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

c

Jan-01

Jan-00

DOM med

120

117

o

133

144

150

o

n/a

n/a

DOM ave

124

130

m

149

152

169

m

n/a

n/a

# Off

220

272

 

225

213

174

 

n/a

n/a

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Santa Clara County Investment as of February 5, 2002

Available

Sep-01

Oct-01

 

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

 

Jan-01

Jan-00

DOM med

65

59

 

63

66

58

r

n/a

n/a

DOM ave

85

89

c

101

97

79

i

 

 

Inventory

136

114

y

100

85

93

c

93

47

 

 

 

n

 

 

 

h

 

 

Sales

Sep-01

Oct-01

t

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

a

Jan-01

Jan-00

SP 10%

$384,000

$419,000

h

$440,000

$439,600

tbd

r

$432,400

$391,000

SP 50% med

$585,000

$590,000

i

$710,000

$706,888

tbd

d

$670,000

$633,500

SP 90%

$1,070,000

$910,000

a

$1,250,000

$1,170,000

tbd

c

$997,100

$1,162,000

LP med

$650,000

$620,000

h

$698,500

$706,888

$749,000

a

$662,500

$635,000

SP/LP ave

95.9%

95.0%

a

96.7%

93.8%

tbd

l

100.5%

102.4%

%SP>LP

18.5%

5.9%

i

7.7%

0.0%

tbd

h

41.2%

45.9%

%SP<LP

77.8%

85.3%

n

76.9%

100.0%

tbd

o

41.2%

35.1%

DOM med

49

69

e

50

43

49

u

10

30

DOM ave

68

88

s

93

97

78

n

40

48

# Sales

31

43

@

38

29

36

@

34

37

# TFT

27

34

c

31

27

tbd

c

34

n/a

% TFT

12.9%

20.9%

r

18.4%

6.9%

tbd

r

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

e

 

 

 

e

 

 

Closings

Sep-01

Oct-01

e

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

e

Jan-01

Jan-00

SP 10%

$406,800

$390,000

k

$433,000

$412,600

$394,000

k

$450,000

$330,000

SP 50% med

$562,500

$625,000

s

$595,000

$550,000

$680,000

s

$660,000

$520,000

SP 90%

$969,500

$1,393,333

i

$992,000

$787,220

$1,064,000

i

$933,000

$990,000

LP med

$573,500

$638,888

d

$668,000

$555,000

$695,000

d

$660,000

$525,000

SP/LP ave

97.8%

96.2%

e

95.4%

95.5%

95.0%

e

99.9%

99.0%

%SP>LP

25.0%

8.6%

r

10.3%

4.0%

7.9%

r

40.5%

23.5%

%SP<LP

62.5%

82.9%

e

79.3%

84.0%

82.8%

e

35.1%

60.8%

DOM med

43

27

a

69

45

31

a

12

24

DOM ave

57

45

l

94

63

68

l

33

58

# Closings

24

35

t

29

25

29

t

n/a

n/a

Updated #

26

36

y

32

tbd

tbd

y

37

51

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

.

 

 

Off-Market

Sep-01

Oct-01

c

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

c

Jan-01

Jan-00

DOM med

163

140

o

108

179

139

o

n/a

n/a

DOM ave

150

135

m

130

199

217

m

n/a

n/a

# Off

31

28

 

27

33

15

 

n/a

n/a

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Santa Clara County as of February 5, 2002

Available - data in this category is based on properties currently available for sale, status 1.
Days on the market (DOM) for available listings (status 1) continues to increase at 82/110 (median/average) which is longer than the DOM for sales at 68/87 and longer than the closings at 62/79. The resumption in the climb of DOM for sales can be explained by some undesirable properties with long market exposure selling as inventory tightens.  

SCC inventory grew rapidly from February 5, 2001 at 826 homes to a peak of 4,433 on May 26th. Inventory had decreased to 3,822 on September 2nd. Inventory remained flat through 10/6, but has been dropping ever since. On February 5, 2002 inventory dropped to only 1927. This drop is more significant than the normal seasonal drop.

Sales - data in this category is based on properties with an initiated sale (offer accepted) during the month.
The median LIST price took a small slip in December to $514,950. Median List price remains $25,000 below last year’s level.

The general trend of an eight day increase in DOM for sales each month ended. DOM has been basically flat for 3 months. The key will be to observe the DOM for available properties. This is likely to decrease as more new listings come onto the market causing the average to decrease.

With 962 sales during December 2001 this nearly matches the sales level experienced this past summer. December sales significantly surpass the 620 sales in December 2000 and the 784 sales in 1999. In fact, this is the best December since records were published starting in 1984. The previous best December was 1998 with only 852 sales.

Percent of transactions fallen through ( %TFT) increased significantly in 2001 compared with 1999 and 2000. Expect the TFT rate to start to fall. However this trend will be hard to notice because of the time it takes for escrows to fail.  

Closings - data in this category is based on properties that closed escrow during the month.
The median Sold price in December was $499,000, which is basically unchanged from November. This was somewhat surprising as I was expecting a five thousand dollar drop but got a five hundred dollar increase. I am expecting there to be a small increase in January. It appears the worst is be behind SCC and it was bad, October’s median was off 17% below January’s median of $577,500. This compares with only an 8.9% drop from August 1989 to October 1991. In other words, median price has dropped more (17%) in 9 months during 2001 than the median dropped (8.9%) in 14 months during the 1990 slowdown. December’s median Sold price of $499,000 remains about $40,000 lower than the median of $540,000 in December 2000. Annual comparisons are more significant as they eliminate the seasonal effects. Based on this statistical analysis and market place activity, property values appear to be off more than 25% from January’s peak. High-end properties in general lost more (50% in some cases) than the low-end properties, which maintained more of their value. High-end properties saw a higher percentage of appreciation so it appears that values are returning to their normal distribution prior to this last wave of rapid appreciation.

The trend of less homes selling over their asking price and more homes selling below their asking price continues. It appears that many sellers still have not adjusted to the new lower prices even as these prices began to increase. Last year sellers on average got 101.7% of the asking price. This year the average ratio is only 96.4% of the asking price. This does represent the first increase in the SP/LP ratio. Another positive indication. About 1/9 of the properties are still selling over the asking price.

The DOM for closings in December is 62/79, for sales is 68/87 and for available listings is 82/110. This shows the market times are still increasing. One explanation for the longer time on the market for the available properties is that some properties are overpriced for the current market conditions and Buyers are bypassing them in favor of newer listings and now with shrinking inventory some less desirable properties with long market exposure times are starting to sell

With 888 closings in December volume improved significantly from November. The higher rate of sales seen since mid-October is starting to increase the number of closings. This shows the impact of the fewer sales after WTC worked through the system. Expect January’s closings to be higher than normal. Buyers were pulling back prior to WTC as sales were about 90% of normal. Buyers clearly pulled back more subsequent to WTC and dropped sales to about 50% of normal. However as mentioned above buyers continue to return to the market and since the middle of October sales have been ABOVE normal which will create more January closings.

Updated# shows an updated number of closings that are NOT included in the data. This is usually caused by the listing agent failing to report the close by midnight of the fourth day of the next month..

Condo/townhouse market - accounts for approximately one-quarter (1/4) of the total transactions and a significantly smaller percentage based on dollar volume due to the condo’s relatively lower prices. The condo market tends to follow the single-family market.

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