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Monterey County Houses as of January 5, 2002

AVAILABLE

 Aug-01 Sep-01

 

Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

 

Dec-00 Dec-99
DOI2,3 158.4 183.6

 

155.0 123.1 146.3

r

93.7 n/a
Inventory2 1100 1128

c

1063 943 857

i

431 n/a
Sale/day2,3 6.94 6.14

y

6.90 7.66 5.86

4.60 n/a
DOM med2 74 77

n

84 93 102

h

n/a n/a
DOM ave2 99 103

t

112 121 133

a

n/a n/a

h

r

SALES4

 Aug-01 Sep-01

i

 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

d

Dec-00 Dec-99 SP 10%1 $234,160 $239,000

a

$235,345 $235,100 tbd

c

$238,000 $163,700
SP 50%med1 $342,000 $332,500

h

$355,000 $366,500 tbd

a

$352,500 $334,500
SP 90%1 $835,000 $703,900

a

$826,635 $894,000 tbd

l

$930,000 $868,000
LP med2 $360,000 $349,500

i

 $365,000 $370,000 $369,000

h

$360,000 $345,500
SP/LP ave1 97.3% 96.0%

n

96.2% 96.0% tbd

o

97.3% 97.5%
%SP>LP1 6.6% 5.9%

e

6.2% 7.8% tbd

u

15.6% 18.8%
%SP<LP1 78.7% 86.9%

s

79.2% 82.8% tbd

n

62.4% 61.2%
DOM med2 64 67

@

65 76 70

@

36 42
DOM ave2 83 82

c

 89 98 100

c

 54 67
# Sales2 247 175

r

225 229 198

r

153 188
% TFT1 18.2% 9.7%

e

8.4% 5.7% tbd

e

7.8% 8.5%

e

e

CLOSINGS

 Aug-01 Sep-01

k

Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

k

Dec-00 Dec-99
SP 10%2 $240,000 $235,050

s

$239,450 $243,400 $254,100

s

$212,000 $160,000
SP50% med2 $350,000 $375,000

i

$350,500 $350,000 $357,500

i

$380,750 $275,500
SP 90%2 $864,000 $991,500

d

$835,000 $731,000 $767,500

d

$962,500 $1,000,000
LP med2 $366,400 $387,000

e

$369,450 $359,000 $369,000

e

$379,450 $285,000
SP/LP ave2 96.3% 96.6%

r

96.7% 95.9% 96.0%

r

97.8% 97.2%
%SP>LP2 6.2% 6.3%

e

8.5% 4.8% 8.0%

e

11.2% 12.3%
%SP<LP2 77.1% 77.1%

a

81.8% 83.8% 80.9%

a

57.1% 64.0%
DOM med2 47 70

l

50 74 68

l

33 42
DOM ave2 63 86

t

76 87 92

t

64 69
#Closings2 210 144

y

176 167 188

y

197 207
Updated#1 214 149

.

183 172 tbd

.

206 211

c

c

OFF MARKET

 Aug-01 Sep-01

o

Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

o

Dec-00 Dec-99
DOM med2 106 134

m

125 161 171

m

n/a n/a
DOM ave2 152 147 150 174 186 n/a n/a
#Off mark2 98 99 157 153 150 n/a n/a

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Monterey County Condos as of January 5, 2002

AVAILABLE

 Aug-01 Sep-01

 

Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

 

Dec-00 Dec-99
DOI2,3 128.7 165.6

 

167.2 198.3 234.1

r

42.6 n/a
Inventory2 114 123

c

129 119 107

i

28 n/a
Sale/day2,3 0.89 0.74

y

0.77 0.60 0.46

c

0.66 n/a
DOM med2 68 66

n

76 82 99

h

n/a n/a
DOM ave2 83 87

t

94 104 116

a

n/a n/a

h

r

SALES4

 Aug-01 Sep-01

i

 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

d

Dec-00 Dec-99
SP 10%1 $161,400 $171,500

a

$151,470 $179,500 tbd

c

$165,000 $96,180
SP 50%med1 $208,000 $227,500

h

$217,500 $291,815 tbd

a

$259,500 $162,500
SP 90%1 $326,900 $450,000

a

$336,763 $450,000 tbd

l

$620,000 $520,500
LP med2 $209,500 $229,750

i

 $245,000 $289,555 $289,000

h

$239,000 $163,500
SP/LP ave1 97.9% 97.0%

n

97.8% 96.6% tbd

o

98.9% 97.8%
%SP>LP1 15.0% 9.5%

e

4.8% 0.0% tbd

u

18.8% 22.7%
%SP<LP1 55.0% 61.9%

s

52.4% 77.8% tbd

n

50.0% 63.6%
DOM med2 55 38

@

30 52 47

@

19 46
DOM ave2 56 48

c

 62 97 57

c

 55 54
# Sales2 29 24

r

29 17 16

r

24 24
% TFT1 31.0% 12.5%

e

17.2% 5.9% tbd

e

0.0% 8.3%

e

e

CLOSINGS

 Aug-01 Sep-01

k

Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

k

Dec-00 Dec-99
SP 10%2 $176,500 $180,000

s

$157,800 $152,450 $151,200

s

$154,000 $97,800
SP50%med2 $275,000 $229,000

i

$227,500 $197,500 $255,250

i

$210,000 $192,750
SP 90%2 $484,500 $615,000

d

$432,200 $345,000 $385,000

d

$512,000 $550,600
LP med2 $283,200 $230,000

e

$234,500 $202,000 $268,000

e

$220,000 $195,000
SP/LP ave2 97.3% 98.4%

r

96.4% 98.6% 97.2%

r

97.8% 97.1%
%SP>LP2 8.3% 9.5%

e

4.0% 12.5% 5.9%

e

15.8% 12.0%
%SP<LP2 70.8% 47.6%

a

72.0% 56.3% 58.8%

a

51.9% 68.0%
DOM med2 24 21

l

38 29 22

l

24 34
DOM ave2 40 39

t

52 60 71

t

32 54
#Closings2 24 21

y

25 16 17

y

17 24
Updated#1 25 23

.

25 16 tbd

.

18 25

c

c

OFFMARKET

 Aug-01 Sep-01

o

Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01

o

Dec-00 Dec-99
DOM med2 149 93

m

123 120 190

m

n/a n/a
DOM ave2 123 96 149 145 161 n/a n/a
#Off mark2 10 13 21 21 29 n/a n/a

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Monterey County as of January 5, 2002

Available - data in this category is based on properties currently available for sale, status 1.

DOI started 2001 with the normal holiday spike. DOI reached a low of 69 on February 19th. DOI then climbed to 166 by the end of June and fluctuated up to 175 through the end of August. At this point DOI started to drop rapidly until WTC which caused DOI to reverse direction and increase to 185 on October 11. DOI has been falling reaching 119 on December 14th. The holiday effect then took control and DOI increased to 146 on January 5, 2002. DOI for homes under $500K was 98; the $500K to $1.M range was 194 and over $1M was 395. Home sales in the $5+ Million price range are dead, 19 homes on the market and only 1 sale yields a DOI of nearly two years.

Inventory started the year with 400 on January 5, 2001 and grew reaching 1125 on August 25th. Inventory basically reached a plateau and then started the seasonal Fall drop-off. Inventory was 857 on January 5th.

Sales per day increased to a peak of 7.5 sales per day on February 18th. By March 25th sales per day dropped to 6.3 and basically remained at this level until August 27th. At that point sales per day started to rebound and actually reached a peak on September 3rd of 7.0 This is noteworthy as at least for Monterey County this increase was short lived and started to fall prior to WTC. This could have been just fluctuation in the sales and that the real trigger was WTC. One explanation would be that more than the usual number of escrows fell apart during the first 30 days after WTC. Regardless, sales did fall more rapidly after WTC reaching a low of 6.0 on October 6th. The trend has been basically increasing reaching 7.8 sales/day on December 14th before decreasing to 5.9 on January 5, 2002. This current reduction in sales is caused by the annual holiday slowdown. At 5.9 sales/day for January 5th 2002 compared with one year ago sales are strong.

Days on the market (DOM) for listings currently available (status 1) is 103/133 (median/average), which is longer than the DOM for homes that entered escrow at 70/100, and is longer than transactions closing in October 69/92.

DOI (146) is basically equal to DOM (133).

Sales - data in this category is based on properties with an initiated sale (offer accepted) during the month.

The median List price is flat at $369,000. Although above the previous December’s price of $360,000 it is basically the same because of the lower SP/LP ratio in 2001. There appears to be significant fluctuating from month-to-month based on exactly which properties sell in a given month caused by the small size of MTY and wide range of property values

The DOM, which started the year flat, was clearly increasing but appears to have been leveling off prior to WTC. Immediately after WTC sales slowed significantly causing DOM to resume its climb. DOM appears to be leveling off a second time. DOM takes time to respond to changes in the market.

The number of sales during the month of December was down to 198. More significant look at the increase over December 2000 with only 153 sales or December 1999 at 188 sales.

Closings - data in this category is based on properties that closed escrow during the month.

The median Sold price reached $385K in July 1999 and has fluctuated between $275K and $380K since then. December 2001 median Sold price came in at $357,500. This indicates that there are simply not enough sales to prevent large monthly bounces. Examining other data, such as DOI, inventory and number of sales, can help you determine what the market is doing.

More properties sold over the asking price in December compared to November. Even in 1999 and 2000 MTY did not see significant overbidding. There was also the slightest increase in the average SP/LP ratio.

Updated# is an adjusted number of reported closings during the specified month. These "missing" transactions are NOT included in the other data.

 

Table footnots: 1) Data related to Sold price is re-compiled early during the current month to incorporate recent closings without delaying the BAREMN. 2) Data is compiled on the 5th day of following month to agree with MLS policy. 3) DOI & Sales per day calculations use recent sales activity. 4) The data is still subject to change as these sales continue to close and the Sold prices are reported.

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Warning: The research done to gather the data in the BAREMN involves examining about 90,000 listings. With that much data, inaccuracies will occur. Additionally, numerous assumptions are made on how to handle this volume of data. Care is taken in gathering and processing the data and the information within this report is deemed reliable. BUT IT IS NOT GUARANTEED. The real estate market is cyclical and will continue to have its ups and downs. Past performance cannot determine future performance. The purpose of the BAREMN is to give you current and consistent market conditions by reporting leading market indicators in addition to traditional real estate data.